The Cat's NFL Over/Under Bets, Plus More, & Detailed Writeups - Week 8 - YTD: 60-40-1 (60%)

[CatsOverUnders]

2013 NFL Regular Season Betting Record: 60-40-1 (60.7%), +$143
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*Over/Unders…………….. 16-10-1 (*My main strength)
Sides..….………………….... 9-5
Teasers…………………….... 17-8
Props………………………..... 15-17
2nd Halves……………….... 2-0
Live………………………....... 1-0
Futures……………………….. 0-0 (Five Pending Win Total Bets, One Additional)
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Pending Win Totals: KC O7.5, DAL O8.5, MIA O8, DET O8, NYG U9

Additional Futures Bet: Broncos LIVE Over 12.5 Wins


2012 NFL Regular Season Betting Record: 139-106-8 (56.7%), +$622
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*Over/Unders…………….. 48-39-2 (*My main strength)
Sides…..………………….... 14-8-2
Teasers…………………….... 41-27
Props………………………..... 27-22-4
Moneylines……………...... 1-2
2nd Halves……………….... 5-7
Parlays……………………..... 0-1
Futures……………………….. 3-0
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Sorry for not posting this sooner, just got home so hopefully you are able to get this first bet of Week 8 from The Cat in right in time for game time…


Panthers @ Buccaneers OVER 37 (Bought 2 points) - $30 for $20
Since this is a minimum-sized bet, I decided to buy the two points to protect me if it’s 20-17, which is always possible in these types of games. In any case, I wanted some action on the over because Cam Newton is starting to hit his stride in 2013, and has outstanding numbers against the division-rival Bucs in his career. Plus, he seems like the type of young player that loves playing in this type of spotlight. Collectively, they can see light in terms of going over .500 for the first time in the Ron Rivera Era so that’ll be a nice spark for them. As for the Bucs, yes, they’re a mess, and now Doug Martin is out for most of the year, if not more, but I actually like this Mike Glennon kid and I see tonight being a positive step in his development. On that note, I’d actually recommend Bucs +7 as well. GL

 

[CatsOverUnders]

Oh, and obviously, that should read *60%, not 60.7%. Forgot to change that.

 

[swirv]

Here is an article hopefully helpful on buying points. Basically says not helpful

http://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-key-numbers/

 

[CatsOverUnders]

Here is an article hopefully helpful on buying points. Basically says not helpful

http://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-key-numbers/

Swirv, you're awesome and the unquestioned Props King in my eyes (Which I especially have extra respect for this season, given my own unexpected struggles with props this year), buutt:

A)Strategically buying two points here just single-handedly got me a push (As of this writing after that FG), if not more (Even if it is more, I can watch the rest of the game comfortably knowing I can't lose). It's happened multiple times this season already and multiple times last year, and the different cannot just be measured in +/- money. There's a huge mental aspect to it in terms of my mindset for upcoming games, too, at least to me personally.

B)That article profiles college football, which has a whole assortment of different scores compared to pro football, and I'll never bet college football regularly (My hats off to those who are successfully able to predict what 19-22 year-old kids do every Saturday; too many immaturity issues to project any type of consistency, in my opinion).

If I were to bet big amounts, then odds are I wouldn't be as points-buying-happy. If I were betting hundreds per game, there's no way I'd be buying points as much as I do. But when a lot of my bets are in the $25-$75 range, and it only costs me a few extra dollars (Literally) to protect myself in certain worst-case scenarios, then I'll take it. But for the most part, it boils down to how low my bets are.

 

[CatsOverUnders]

Welllll... actually, forget what I just wrote about buying myself a push. BUT, I didn't have to sweat anything out (Something I HATE doing, especially when I'm out watching a game), and regardless, it's a minimum-sized bet, which I emphasized in the first sentence of my write-up, which allowed me to comfortably buy the two points (Only an extra $8; bet won anyway).

And for those that STILL want to say I "lost" money on the win... stop. If I left the bet alone, I would've done it to win $20. I bought two points, and still won $20. Again, no money lost. Don't care what it does to my "ROI" or "Unit Value" or whatever sabermetrics-type betting analytical numbers you want to bring into my thread. Again, it boils down to ME getting yet another game RIGHT. Again. And that's it. Period.

 

[swirv]

Swirv, you're awesome and the unquestioned Props King in my eyes (Which I especially have extra respect for this season, given my own unexpected struggles with props this year), buutt:

A)Strategically buying two points here just single-handedly got me a push (As of this writing after that FG), if not more (Even if it is more, I can watch the rest of the game comfortably knowing I can't lose). It's happened multiple times this season already and multiple times last year, and the different cannot just be measured in +/- money. There's a huge mental aspect to it in terms of my mindset for upcoming games, too, at least to me personally.

B)That article profiles college football, which has a whole assortment of different scores compared to pro football, and I'll never bet college football regularly (My hats off to those who are successfully able to predict what 19-22 year-old kids do every Saturday; too many immaturity issues to project any type of consistency, in my opinion).

If I were to bet big amounts, then odds are I wouldn't be as points-buying-happy. If I were betting hundreds per game, there's no way I'd be buying points as much as I do. But when a lot of my bets are in the $25-$75 range, and it only costs me a few extra dollars (Literally) to protect myself in certain worst-case scenarios, then I'll take it. But for the most part, it boils down to how low my bets are.

You are right buddy, I posted the wrong link (sorry been drinking). Here is one for the NFl that is similar

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByxaFw1ISYqKenNKWU82bWFETFk/edit?usp=sharing

 

[CatsOverUnders]

You are right buddy, I posted the wrong link (sorry been drinking). Here is one for the NFl that is similar

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByxaFw1ISYqKenNKWU82bWFETFk/edit?usp=sharing

I think that's the wrong article again

That only illustrates the percentages of margin of defeat in the NFL, which doesn't apply to me as I rarely, rarely buy point(s) with sides. Just about all of my 9-5 sides record (Or combined 17-8-2 sides record last year with regular season and postseason) is the product of mostly the original -110 line. And in the rare instance I do buy points with sides, it's only a half-point (-120) to make it an even number if it's 3, 4, 7, or 10. But most of my sides over the years are the original -110 line.

 

[Xmas32]

Swirv, you're awesome and the unquestioned Props King in my eyes (Which I especially have extra respect for this season, given my own unexpected struggles with props this year), buutt:

A)Strategically buying two points here just single-handedly got me a push (As of this writing after that FG), if not more (Even if it is more, I can watch the rest of the game comfortably knowing I can't lose). It's happened multiple times this season already and multiple times last year, and the different cannot just be measured in +/- money. There's a huge mental aspect to it in terms of my mindset for upcoming games, too, at least to me personally.

B)That article profiles college football, which has a whole assortment of different scores compared to pro football, and I'll never bet college football regularly (My hats off to those who are successfully able to predict what 19-22 year-old kids do every Saturday; too many immaturity issues to project any type of consistency, in my opinion).

If I were to bet big amounts, then odds are I wouldn't be as points-buying-happy. If I were betting hundreds per game, there's no way I'd be buying points as much as I do. But when a lot of my bets are in the $25-$75 range, and it only costs me a few extra dollars (Literally) to protect myself in certain worst-case scenarios, then I'll take it. But for the most part, it boils down to how low my bets are.

At the bottom of the article are links to NFL and NFL total key numbers w/ similar charts.

 

[CatsOverUnders]

At the bottom of the article are links to NFL and NFL total key numbers w/ similar charts.

Ah, thanks man. Your eye is as good as Nick Franklin's

It's an interesting chart, no doubt. It's good that all that data has been gathered and calculated to the factual amount.

BUT, stuff like this can't be measured too heavily when treating each game with its own identity. On average, I usually lock in 2-4 over/unders a week, forcing none of them, because I had a good vision and a good beat for the game in which I have a very good predicted target score. If I were to constantly compare it to the chart and such, there's no proper correlation because each game has its own identity, and if you have a beat on one of the 14-16 games, then you go for it, rather than looking to the chart and seeing the "percentage" it has falling on that given number. That's ludicrous because that's comparable to lumping every game into some sort of machine and playing too much by percentages. That's not how you win in gambling. You win by evaluating each game closely, seeing which ones stick out, locking in on said games, and if you feel you have a beat on it with an exact score (In terms of over/unders), then you trust your gut. Despite my relatively young age, I've been doing this long enough where A LOT of my target scores are right on the money (Ex. Last week's CLE/GB, CIN/DET matchups), and you guys all saw the freakish amount of exact scores - or ones where I was one or two points off from the exact outcome - that I predicted last year. There's a certain "feel" and gut you have to have for over/unders, which means you can't take that chart too much into consideration for certain bets you feel really good about.

 

[Diothegreat]

Welllll... actually, forget what I just wrote about buying myself a push. BUT, I didn't have to sweat anything out (Something I HATE doing, especially when I'm out watching a game), and regardless, it's a minimum-sized bet, which I emphasized in the first sentence of my write-up, which allowed me to comfortably buy the two points (Only an extra $8; bet won anyway).

And for those that STILL want to say I "lost" money on the win... stop. If I left the bet alone, I would've done it to win $20. I bought two points, and still won $20. Again, no money lost. Don't care what it does to my "ROI" or "Unit Value" or whatever sabermetrics-type betting analytical numbers you want to bring into my thread. Again, it boils down to ME getting yet another game RIGHT. Again. And that's it. Period.

What odds are you getting for buying 2 pts? Its normally -170. So you really won less than $20. $17.63 actually. Please post your wager from your site to show your are not fabricating your odds on buying 2pts

 

[StevieRay]

And we're off

 

[PatsFanatic]

What odds are you getting for buying 2 pts? Its normally -170. So you really won less than $20. $17.63 actually. Please post your wager from your site to show your are not fabricating your odds on buying 2pts

Buying two points on my site is only -150, actually -148 because they offer reduced juice but .50 is standard I believe.

 

[919]

Buying two points on my site is only -150, actually -148 because they offer reduced juice but .50 is standard I believe.

Depends if you are buying through key numbers

 

[CatsOverUnders]

What odds are you getting for buying 2 pts? Its normally -170. So you really won less than $20. $17.63 actually. Please post your wager from your site to show your are not fabricating your odds on buying 2pts

HAHAHAHA you are the last person on these forums that I would ever listen to. Every time you've come into my thread - in your typical dick-fashion - to challenge me on something, you've been proven wrong, literally, every single time. And then when I point it out and rub it in, you're nowhere to be found... and then you come back into my threads the next week pretending like it didn't happen. Rinse and repeat. I would honestly go as far as saying that you have the least credibility of ANY poster here at The RX. Without question.

And as PatsFanatic correctly pointed out, when you buy points with over/unders, it only goes up in planned increments, as in 0.5 point (-120), 1 point (-130), 1.5 point (-140), 2 points (-150), etc.... and only up to the maximum of three points (-170), obviously.

Have some ideas for Sunday's slate but still breaking some stuff down. That will be especially crucial, since Monday looks to have a bit of a tricky game. Don't be fooled by Kellen Clemens, who people forget looked above average in his last extensive stint playing at the end of 2011. In fact, reminiscing through his game log, I see he had a performance where he was 25-for-36 (69.4%!) with 229 yards, a TD and no picks against a playoff-bound Bengals team that was still fighting to get in.

 

[PatrickPowers]

Have some ideas for Sunday's slate but still breaking some stuff down. That will be especially crucial, since Monday looks to have a bit of a tricky game. Don't be fooled by Kellen Clemens, who people forget looked above average in his last extensive stint playing at the end of 2011. In fact, reminiscing through his game log, I see he had a performance where he was 25-for-36 (69.4%!) with 229 yards, a TD and no picks against a playoff-bound Bengals team that was still fighting to get in.

Lets take a look at the "extensive stint" and not just a snapshot.

- 3 games played
- 0-3 record
- average margin of defeat: 13.6 points
- 2TD / 1 INT
- 182 yards passing per game
- 53% completion percentage
- 25.2 Total QBR

In no shape or form are any of those numbers above average.

 

[CatsOverUnders]

Lets take a look at the "extensive stint" and not just a snapshot.

- 3 games played
- 0-3 record
- average margin of defeat: 13.6 points
- 2TD / 1 INT
- 182 yards passing per game
- 53% completion percentage
- 25.2 Total QBR

In no shape or form are any of those numbers above average.

-Can't talk about his record when he was starting for a 2-14 team, and faced three playoff teams (49ers, Steelers, Bengals) in his only three starts, coming at the very end of the 2011 season when said three playoff teams were fighting for critical playoff positioning (Ex. 49ers earned the No. 2 seed by beating Kellen Clemens).

-His RB at that time was Cadillac Williams. You could have a three-man front every play and go with a quarter defense. Enough said.

-Any QB would take a 2:1 TD:INT ratio (Although maybe not literally )

-His two off games came against the 49ers and Steelers, both playoff teams that have possessed two of the best and stingiest defensive units of the past five years. Unfair for a back-up QB to face said units when they have to win for playoff positioning.

-He threw for over 225 yards in two of his three starts, which is respectable, and his average for the small sample size came down drastically because of a tough matchup against that epically-great 49ers defense.

-QBR is not a legitimate stat, nor should it be treated as one. It's only as "well-known" as it is because some guy from ESPN made it up, and ESPN tries [and fails] constantly to push it as a legitimate benchmark statistic. ESPN has not been successful in that aspect, as other networks and outlets never even acknowledge QBR, and instead stick with the good ol' fashioned QB Rating that has been around forever. QBR is only still around because ESPN tries to keep it relevant, when in fact it really is not.


In any case, maybe "above average" was the wrong word choice for Clemens in that stint. I'll take that back and rightfully replace it with "competent." I remember that Bengals game, versus a team that was still fighting to get into the playoffs. Thus, there was a playoff atmosphere in the air, with a good defense working against Clemens, yet the former Jet still dominated them for a very impressive performance in a high-stakes (For Cincinnati) contest. My point is he's capable of doing something at that position on the interim.

Christ, I never thought there would be so much Kellen Clemens discussion/analysis in 2013.

 

[Vituperate]

Great article and link swirv..ty also. Printed the whole thing out. Still have something like these charts from 10 years ago but this is updated.

And yes Cats, "King of Props" is an apt moniker.

I have been much more aggressive buying points this season than any other before Cats. There is no way I am going to go U 40.5 or 43.5. These are just getting the worst of it imo. I will buy key totals and key numbers to at least get a push. You can also cherry pick your betting sites knowing the tendency of their line setters. Obv Bovada is a key site for dog bettors...Bet US too. You can count on another valuable half point in most cases. Also some sites will over react too quickly with a line that starts at -4.5 and then goes to -5.5...some sites jump right to -7 thinking "hell, it is going to get there by the end of the week anyway." Sometimes it doesn't and you can get a cheap line or arb out.

bol and thanks for posting.

 

[duckhunter]

Cats what do you think about our saints this week?

 

[CatsOverUnders]

Cats what do you think about our saints this week?

First, it's Cat, not "Cats." I don't get this misconception that some people have when I always clearly write in the title "The Cat," hence its presence in my username. Even in real life, I'm referred to as CAT, so hopefully that is not mistaken as much going forward.

As for our beloved Saints, it's a game that might be tougher than it seems. Thad Lewis is someone I actually predicted to be a sleeper when he first got this starting gig with the Bills (As I detailed in my successful Bills/Bengals Over that day in his first assignment), so success for him is no fluke to me, which is how several people are seeing it. Even with CJ Spiller most likely out (He's doubtful, and they promoted RB Ronnie Wingo from the practice squad to be the third-string, which should ensure Spiller is not playing), I envision a big game from Fred Jackson, who has performed very admirably this year, even while playing hurt (And most notably, outscoring CJ Spiller in fantasy). Thus, Lewis has some decent pieces to work with and keep this game close, as it appears he's settled in nicely with that Buffalo offense. The interesting thing, however, is that the Saints, aside from being home where they are virtually unbeatable, is that they're coming off a bye, and in such situations over the past three seasons, they average over 40 pts/game in their first game back. Unlike so many trends we see out there that usually are coincidental and not defining, I think that's a very useful trend because it reveals a collective team mindset in such specific scenarios (Returning from a week off, in this case), which is something I always look for, since sports to me is more mental than anything. Human Nature (As revealed with Josh Freeman when I wrote 500 words about him going into that Monday Night game) is the one trait that tops everything else.

I'll have a bet on this game... but I'll reveal that tomorrow - and it might be one of my bigger ones, so stay tuned for that. I always finalize all my NFL analysis when I get home Saturday Nights (If I'm not too wasted) and/or Sunday mornings so I'll make sure to have that one up as early as possible. I just prefer to always stick to my usual weekly routine that I've had for years, which is why I'm holding back on simply posting it now.

 

[slapshot]

GL Dog